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Russia in 2025 continues its war against Ukraine, spending billions on its military while its reserves are dwindling. Meanwhile, the government is raising taxes and big companies like Aeroflot are barely staying afloat.
In interview with Glavred , economist Vitaliy Shapran explained why Russia has already essentially eaten up its reserves, how OPEC+ sanctions will worsen the oil crisis in the Russian Federation, and why Russians are hiding taxes from the state.
“It is based on oil, the remaining reserves and, thank God, on inertia. Economic processes have an inertial basis – the economy cannot collapse in one day. A sharp collapse is already a consequence of an acute crisis. The Russian economy had a certain margin of safety at the beginning of the invasion in 2022. Now it has come to an end. What we have been seeing since about the beginning of this year is that the war is financed by the deterioration of the internal situation in Russia. This raises questions among local elites and regional representatives of power who are elected there.
If you read their local media, you will see that the situation is very complicated. Unfortunately, we only hear the echo of propaganda from the pro-Kremlin media. But even they periodically have truth that is simply impossible to hide. Because there are statistics that cannot be falsified, there are industry associations – from metallurgists to farmers – that tell the truth about the state of affairs in their areas. Therefore, when I hear positive assessments, like, everything is fine, taxes are growing, and so on, I understand that this is achieved by selectively pulling out individual data from a negative series and their incorrect interpretation”, he added.
“If you look at the dynamics of revenues, in June the Russians were unable to collect even 500 billion rubles from the resource tax on oil and gas. About 90% of this revenue is from oil, the rest is from gas, which now occupies a smaller share. It turned out that the prices for Russian oil rose to about 60 dollars per barrel, but revenues in rubles, with a more or less stable exchange rate, did not increase”, expert said.
“People often ask: "What about the official deficit of -3.8 trillion rubles, and you say that the hidden one is larger, how do they do it?" – it’s simple. For example, the week before last, Kuzbass borrowed up to 10 billion rubles from Sovcombank and Sberbank. According to the budget rules of the Russian Federation, they should have applied to the federal government and received a budget loan at 3.5%, but they do not do this. Why? Because such a loan would be considered a budget deficit. And if they take a loan from state or commercial banks, this is not counted as a federal deficit, because formally there are no budgetary relations, and the banks finance the lack of funds. This is how they hide the real deficit, which is considerable.
A similar situation is not only in Kuzbass, it has simply become a public example”, he added. In this situation, people’s dissatisfaction with the government is growing. It is even expected that protests will begin in Russia in the near future due to money issues.
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