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After the departure of Ramzan Kadyrov, forces not loyal to Vladimir Putin may seize power in Chechnya, which could lead to serious destabilization of the region. This opinion was expressed by Ukrainian military expert Alexander Musienko.
According to him, it is precisely this scenario that causes the Kremlin the greatest fear amid reports of health problems in the Chechen leader.
The expert noted that Kadyrov has for many years ensured a certain balance in Chechnya based on an unspoken agreement with the federal center. "A very serious mess could start there. The Kremlin understands this perfectly well, because Kadyrov has maintained the status quo: he has been allocated funds, he disposes of them as he sees fit, and the formula has been maintained – the Kremlin pays, there are no uprisings," Musienko said. He emphasized that Kadyrov’s possible departure from the political scene creates uncertainty around the future management of the region. According to the expert, it is far from certain that his sons will be able to hold on to power. "If Kadyrov steps aside, the situation becomes unpredictable," he added.
Musienko also pointed to the presence of numerous rival clans in Chechnya, which, according to him, have long been waiting for a convenient moment for revenge. "Kadyrov has many opponents. There are clans ready to take revenge on him, and as soon as the opportunity arises, they will act – and they will act decisively. I have no doubt about that," the expert noted. In his estimation, it is this factor that explains the Kremlin’s nervousness about what is happening. "They are really in turmoil. Kadyrov was seen as a figure capable of maintaining control over the region, and even as one of Putin’s potential successors," Musienko summarized.
Recall, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has suffered kidney failure and is undergoing dialysis. A source in the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense told media. The interviewee notes that he is in the hospital, and next to him are members of his family clan, in particular, those who arrived not only from different regions of Russia, but also from other countries.
The source adds that, given Kadyrov’s serious health problems, a replacement is being sought. Among the candidates mentioned are Kadyrov’s eldest son, Akhmat, as well as Chechen Prime Minister Magomed Daudov and the commander of the Akhmat detachment, Apti Alaudinov.
As reported, in January, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov appointed his 20-year-old son Akhmat as acting deputy head of the republic’s government and retained his position as Minister of Sports.
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