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Ukrainian drone attacks deep into Russia are so successful because the aggressor lacks air defenses to cover its vast territory, as columnist Peter Dickinson writes in an article for the American think tank Atlantic Council .
He notes that for centuries, Russia’s colossal size gave it a significant military advantage—strategic depth, which bogged down foreign invaders from Napoleon to Hitler, unable to inflict a decisive defeat on the Russians. However, Dickinson writes, this titanic size has now transformed from an advantage into a problem for Russia.
The observer notes that in the first years of the full-scale war, Russia didn’t face this problem, as Ukraine essentially lacked long-range strike capabilities. However, in recent months, Kyiv has shifted from strikes on the frontline to a full-scale strategic "bombing" campaign using drones and missiles of its own production, striking Russian military and industrial targets at depths of up to 2,000 kilometers. As a result, the entire "core" of the Russian state, where 70% of the population and the bulk of its industry are concentrated, is now within range of Ukrainian attacks. Although Russia understands the danger of this situation and is attempting to deprive Ukraine of its long-range strike capabilities, the aggressor’s air defense crisis is only worsening. As Dickinson notes, since the beginning of the war, Russia has concentrated the lion’s share of its available air defense assets at the front to cover its troops, leaving its rear areas largely exposed.
Given that Ukrainian forces have recently been attempting to specifically destroy Russian anti-aircraft missile systems, their shortage is growing. This is despite the fact that the Russians are increasingly demanding such systems, as the range of Ukrainian drones and missiles is only expanding.
"With an airspace spanning eleven time zones and nearly thirty times larger than Ukraine’s, Russia is simply too large to be covered comprehensively. This trajectory is unlikely to change anytime soon. On the contrary, as Ukraine’s long-range weapons arsenal expands further and Putin’s air defenses become increasingly overstretched, the Russian colossus will become even more vulnerable to attack from the skies," the observer concludes.
Recall, Russia’s Permnefteorgsintez oil refinery has halted crude processing and fuel production after a Ukrainian drone strike damaged key units and caused a fire. The Lukoil-owned facility, also known as PermNOS, is Russia’s seventh-largest refinery by processing volume, with an annual throughput of more than 12 million tons. The plant is located in Russia’s Perm region, roughly 1,460 kilometers east of Moscow. Reuters cited industry sources reporting that three primary distillation units, AVT-5, AVT-1, and AVT-2, were shut down on May 7. Together, the units account for roughly half of the plant’s capacity. A fourth unit, AVT-4, has been offline since April 30 following an earlier drone strike that caused a fire.
The refinery processed around 12.6 million tons of oil in 2024, equal to roughly 250,000 barrels per day. Last year, it produced about 2 million tons of gasoline, more than 5 million tons of diesel, 700,000 tons of coke, and 200,000 tons of fuel oil.
Lukoil did not respond to Reuters’ request for comment. Industry sources reported that repairs at the refinery could take several weeks, while local governor Dmitry Makhonin confirmed that drones had attacked industrial facilities in the region without naming the site. The Moscow Times reported that PermNOS is the ninth Russian refinery to suspend operations since the start of spring.
Other affected sites include Kirishinefteorgsintez in the Leningrad region, the Syzran, Novokuibyshevsk, Tuapse, Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez, and Saratov refineries.
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