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Russian military propagandists and Z-bloggers have issued a sharp reaction to a series of Ukrainian strikes on targets deep in Russia’s rear. The trigger was new attacks , including on the oil refinery in Tuapse, footage of the aftermath of which is quickly spreading on social media. Pro-Kremlin media outlets acknowledge that airstrikes occur regularly and raise questions about the effectiveness of air defenses. Moreover, increasingly sharp and aggressive questions are being raised about the Russian leadership, noting Moscow’s weakness and inability to adequately respond to Ukraine’s growing capabilities. The messages appeared successively in three Telegram channels with audiences in the hundreds of thousands: military correspondent Romanov, "UAV Developer," and "Military Informant." The publications note that current air defense systems cannot cope with the scale of the attacks, and the strikes themselves are described as a systemic problem. Some bloggers claim that Ukraine is developing drone production and gradually increasing its target engagement range. Some authors argue that the reliance on drones is changing the nature of warfare and requires new solutions from the Russian military. They estimate that attacks on infrastructure deep within the country could continue unless additional defensive measures are taken.
Ukrainian kamikaze unmanned aircraft operators have in the past three months intensified their country’s bombardment of Russia to hit targets at a record pace with denser swarms, using robot aircraft carrying bigger warheads against air defenses increasingly less capable of stopping the drones. Observers have pointed to a campaign by Ukraine’s drone forces to hunt down and destroy Russian air defense systems capable of intercepting drones, as a big factor in Kyiv’s ability to hit more targets with larger numbers of drones. Although some attacks have been opportunistic, many take-downs of Russian surface-to-air missile and guns systems, and their radars, have been complex strike operations combining air force manned aircraft, on-the-ground spies, Western satellite intelligence and waves of Ukrainian drones attacking from unexpected directions or attempting to overwhelm defenses with raw numbers. According to Armed Forces of Ukraine statements, picked pilots and technicians from Ukraine’s military Main Intelligence Directorate, the special forces commando group, the National Security Agency, and the USF have all been flying airstrikes targeting Russian air defenses. By March, the snowballing pace of Ukrainian drone assaults and the gaps torn in Russian air defenses was being acknowledged by no less than the Kremlin. Sergei Shoigu, Secretary of Russia’s Security Council, and others spelled out the problem: “The dynamics of development for strikes systems used by Ukraine, most of all by unmanned aircraft, the sophistication of the tactics of their use are such that not a single region in Russia can consider itself safe… Just recently the Ural region was unreachable by air strikes from the territory of Ukraine, and now that region is firmly in the zone of constant threat.” Russian State Duma Deputy Andrei Gurulyov, a retired lieutenant general and pro-Kremlin figure often commenting on military matters, in comments reported in mainstream media, said Russia is “too massive” to fully defend against Ukrainian deep drone strikes and that Russia “lacks the air defense forces needed to create a continuous protective shield…forces are stretched too thin.”
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