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The Kremlin is attempting to minimize the significance of Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kupiansk, while pro-war Russian bloggers continue to acknowledge the seriousness of the situation for Russian forces, according to a report by the U.S. Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Ukrainian military sources reported that around 200 Russian troops remain in Kupiansk, and that Russian forces have limited logistics due to successful Ukrainian operations in forming and intercepting units. Recently, Russian state media extensively covered statements by Russian military officials and propagandists that downplay the situation in Kupiansk. ISW notes that this is likely done to support a false Russian narrative claiming that Russian troops will soon break through Ukrainian defenses — a narrative aimed at influencing Ukraine and the West to make major concessions to Russia. İn this case Ukrainian air power focused on preventing reinforcements from crossing the Oskil River and sustaining the Russian bridgehead north of the city, cutting the lifeline before moving in on the town itself. Ukrainian F-16s struck Russian troops near Hryanivka as they attempted to move across the river. Another concentration was destroyed near Holubivka when J-dam bombs from a Ukrainian F-16 annihilated a group mid-crossing. Ukrainian aircraft continued to hit ammunition depots, troop clusters, and drone-operator positions, steadily dismantling Russia’s ability to support its units already deployed in Kupiansk, Euromaidan Press media outlet says. Even the appearance of a Russian Su-35 on patrol failed to stop the campaign, as a Ukrainian MiG-29 delivered another J-dam strike on a building in north-central Kupiansk where Russian assault troops had fortified themselves and Russian combat operations were coordinated from. The second stage targeted the land corridor south of Dvorichna, which Russian forces had been using to infiltrate Kupiansk, where Ukrainians aimed to create a bottleneck around the town. Ukrainian assault teams moved in, clearing forest belts and structures one by one. Russian soldiers being eliminated or captured, providing Ukrainian commanders with valuable intelligence on enemy plans and remaining force dispositions. Russia attempted to counter this by pushing reinforcements across the river, but at extreme difficulty and high cost, Euromaidan Press says. Realizing that the momentum was rapidly shifting in Ukraine’s favor, Russia tried a more indirect response by striking the Pechenihy dam to halt Ukrainian movements and sabotage the flow of logistics to their counterattacks. Despite this, Ukrainian commanders were the ones turning geography into an advantage. Seasonal flooding caused the Oskil to overflow north of the town, creating swampy terrain that, combined with relentless ground pressure, turned Russian positions into isolated pockets on the brink of collapse. This meant that while direct Ukrainian logistics were disrupted, they could go around, while Russian positions and ground lines of communications were washed away directly, with no possible fix available. As the situation deteriorated, Russian forces grew increasingly desperate.
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