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Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia’s strategically important Baltic Sea ports have severely disrupted the country’s oil export operations, dragging volumes down to their lowest point since the start of the full-scale invasion and causing financial losses exceeding $1 billion. In the week of March 23–29, Russia’s seaborne oil shipments dropped sharply by 1.75 million barrels per day, falling to 2.32 million barrels daily. The decline followed repeated strikes on key export terminals in Primorsk and Ust-Luga, which forced a near-total suspension of loading activities for most of the week. As a result, combined exports from these two hubs sank to their lowest levels since early 2022. Overall flows through the affected ports fell to roughly one-third of the previous week’s volume, significantly cutting into Moscow’s oil revenues by more than $1 billion. While the weekly drop was steep, the longer-term trend showed a more moderate decline. Over the four-week period ending March 29, average exports slipped by 280,000 barrels per day to 3.31 million barrels daily – the lowest level recorded in the past two months. Shipping data and reports from port agents indicate that just 22 tankers loaded a total of 16.23 million barrels of Russian crude during that week, a sharp decrease compared to 37 vessels carrying 28.5 million barrels the week before. The repeated drone strikes triggered fires at storage tanks in Primorsk and Ust-Luga and brought loading operations to a halt for most of the reporting period. At the same time, the drop in exports coincided with an increase in deliveries from tankers that had previously been idling at sea with Russian oil cargoes. Meanwhile, shipments to India rose significantly. In March, flows climbed to nearly 1.7 million barrels per day, up from around 1.1 million in February. This increase followed a US decision to grant licenses allowing the purchase of Russian oil loaded onto tankers before March 12. Ust-Luga, located roughly 1,000 kilometers from Ukraine’s border, is one of Russia’s largest Baltic ports and a critical hub for exporting oil products. Its importance extends beyond logistics, as it generates substantial foreign currency revenues that help sustain the Russian state budget and, by extension, its war effort. The strikes are part of a broader pattern. On the night of March 24–25, a large-scale drone attack hit Russia’s Leningrad region, sparking a fire at the Ust-Luga port. A second wave of drone strikes followed on March 30–31, again damaging infrastructure at the same facility. These coordinated attacks by Ukrainian forces have effectively disrupted a significant share of Russia’s Baltic Sea oil exports.
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