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TIMELINE: Could tropical disturbance rain out Tampa Bay’s 4 of July weekend?

TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — Rain chances will steadily increase through the week, peaking with widespread coverage heading into Friday, the 4th of July at a 70% chance of rain and storms.

TIMELINE: Could tropical disturbance rain out Tampa Bay's 4 of July weekend?
Rainfall accumulation through Monday morning (7/7)

The National Hurricane Center is highlighting portions of Florida for a low-end, 20% chance of tropical development later this week. This potential for development stems from a frontal boundary that looks to stall over the state by Friday which could produce an area of low pressure that could gain tropical characteristics.

If this potential system were to organize into a named storm it would take the name Chantal, however regardless of development this will be a “rainmaker” set up for much of Florida.

Timing

Most of the soaking rain and greatest accumulations will begin Friday and continue through the weekend.

Accumulations

Long-range models estimate between 1″ up to 5″ of rain across the Bay area over the next 8 days with the greatest totals beginning Friday onwards.

Flooding

Flooding will likely be an issue due to multiple rounds of rain and downpours. The WPC highlights coastal portions of our area for an elevated flood risk Thursday and Friday.

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