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The campaign of Ukrainian strikes against Russian oil and gas infrastructure not only deprives Russia of its main source of funding for its aggression, but also destabilizes the socio-political situation in the Russian rear, just as Russian society was destabilized on the eve of the February Revolution of 1917. Forbes writes about this.
The publication notes that Ukraine tried to hit the aggressor in this vulnerable spot back in late 2023. But then the Biden administration, fearing the rise in world oil prices, effectively vetoed this strategy of Kyiv.
In the summer of 2025, Ukraine began a new campaign of strikes against Russian refineries and pipelines. This time, when Washington no longer objected to such strikes, the campaign brought significant results: according to various sources, Russia lost from 17% to 20% of its oil refining.
This has caused significant fuel shortages and rising prices on Russia’s domestic market, increasing social pressure on the Kremlin as ordinary Russians increasingly feel the effects of the war.
"Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries achieve what sanctions alone could not. Moscow has found ways to adapt to Western sanctions, but so far it has no reliable defense against Ukrainian drones," explains former adviser to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry Serhiy Kuzan.
As Forbes notes, Russian propaganda cannot ignore the queues at petrol stations in many regions of Russia, but tries to explain this by the consequences of increased seasonal demand for fuel and unscheduled repairs of oil refineries. Only occasionally admitting that the reasons for these unscheduled repairs are destructive "drone debris" flying freely over the European part of Russia.
“On September 4, Putin was forced to admit that Russia faces a gas shortage, suggesting that the country turn to coal reserves, which "will last for almost a thousand years." Russia’s oil export revenues fell in August to a five-year low of $13.5 billion, Reuters reported, as exports declined and Urals crude traded at $56 a barrel, below the $60 price cap.
The Kremlin faces a delicate balance. Its war in Ukraine demands ever-greater funding, yet the economic pressure is growing. The central bank has done an impressive job stabilizing the economy so far, but its tools are limited. Businesses are already strained by high interest rates meant to contain inflation, and rising fuel prices add to the pressure, threatening to upset that balance”, Forbes says.
And all this is happening against the backdrop of a gradual deterioration in the overall economic situation in Russia. As the author of the publication notes, these attacks on refineries themselves will not end the war, but they are shaping its trajectory.
"Putin often positions himself as the heir to the tsars, rebuilding an empire. But he should remember Tsar Nicholas II during World War I, when overextended fronts and domestic shortages made domestic unrest as dangerous as an enemy abroad," Forbes concludes.
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