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Russia and Azerbaijan are experiencing an acute diplomatic crisis, which Moscow is now trying to resolve in a secret format. This was reported by the influential Telegram channel "VChK-OGPU", which is believed to be linked to Russian special services.
According to him, an unofficial delegation from Moscow will travel to Baku in the coming days. The purpose of the visit is to convey a message from Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and try to ease tensions, including discussing a possible "exchange" of detained citizens of the two countries. There are rumors that the delegation may be headed by the Minister of Emergency Situations Alexander Kurenkov, who was previously Putin’s adjutant. According to the source, Kurenkov has personal connections with Azerbaijani representatives, which could be used for informal rapprochement. The split in relations between Azerbaijan and Russia occurred in December 2024, when Russian air defense forces shot down an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane. Thirty-eight people died. Moscow initially denied its guilt and tried to shift responsibility, which caused a sharp reaction in Baku and the Azerbaijani public. Diplomatic relations have remained tense since then, with President Ilham Aliyev canceling his participation in the May 9 celebrations in Moscow in a demonstrative gesture of distancing. An additional blow came in the form of events in late June 2025. Russian security forces raided people from Azerbaijan in Yekaterinburg, during which they even used torture. Two ethnic Azerbaijanis died during their arrest. Baku regarded this as an unfriendly move. In response, the Azerbaijani Ministry of National Security arrested Russian citizens, including two employees of the Russian propaganda agency RT. According to the Azerbaijani side, they were intelligence officers acting under the cover of journalists. These arrests caused a strong resonance. "VChK-OGPU" emphasizes: the Kremlin is not ready for a new hotbed of conflict, especially given the protracted war in Ukraine, the escalation with the West and internal pressure. " Currently, Moscow does not have the resources for confrontation in several directions. The loss of Azerbaijan as a strategic partner in the region is an unaffordable luxury ," the source notes. Azerbaijan is an important player in the South Caucasus, controlling logistics routes, energy and connections with Turkey. For Russia, its loss would mean a serious weakening of its influence in the South Caucasus, an increase in Ankara’s role and further isolation. For now, the official position of both sides is reserved, but diplomacy has gone into a closed mode. The Kremlin seems to have decided to put out the fire behind the scenes, relying on personal connections and backroom proposals. The only question is whether Baku is ready for a compromise and at what price.
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