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For more than a decade, Russian leader Vladimir Putin dominated the international arena, pursuing his primary goal: to make Russia great. However, he then made a critical mistake by invading Ukraine, a decision that could lead to Russia’s destruction and even its collapse, writes The Wall Street Journal.
As the publication notes, Russia’s spring and summer offensives could still plunge Ukraine into crisis. But even if the Russian army regains momentum, any victory will be Pyrrhic.
"The war has dragged on too long, cost too much, and weakened the foundations of Russian power too much. The more likely outcome is a painful stalemate that continues to drain Russia’s human and economic resources, threatening Putin’s hold on power, and the future of Russia itself," the WSJ writes. However, the front line in Ukraine isn’t the only battlefield where Putin is suffering defeat. As the Wall Street Journal reports, the Russian dictator is forced to watch Russia’s influence in Europe decline. Viktor Orbán’s defeat in Hungary has deprived Russia of its closest European ally. Meanwhile, Europeans, divided and disoriented by the split with the United States, have nevertheless found the financial means to support Ukraine in the war and will likely continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
Putin has also proven unable to halt the decline of Russian influence in the rest of the post-Soviet space. Armenia and Azerbaijan are actively cooperating with the West. Some Central Asian republics now have closer economic ties with China than with Russia, and are attracting investment from Turkey and the European Union.
Putin’s attempt to re-engage Russia in the Middle East also failed. His longtime ally, Bashar al-Assad, was ousted. Russia was unable to exert significant influence on military or diplomatic developments in the conflict between the US and Iran. Military setbacks in Mali undermined Russia’s power and prestige, worsening relations with African governments, which expected more assistance than the overstretched Russian forces could provide.
Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine is exacerbating Russia’s demographic decline. Hundreds of thousands of men of military age have died; hundreds of thousands more, including many of Russia’s most educated people, have fled the country. Even despite the growth of Russia’s Muslim minority, the Slavic Russian population appears doomed to further accelerated decline.
As the WSJ notes, these trends could potentially lead to a crisis for the Russian Federation as serious as the collapse of the Soviet Union.
"If the ideology of Russian national revival that Putin has promoted proves to be a decisive failure, his successors will find it difficult to hold on to what remains of the empire."
While the Russian leader shouldn’t be written off, if he can’t find a way out of this predicament, history may remember him as the leader under whose rule Russia’s status as a great power was finally and fatally lost, the WSJ concludes.
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