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Russia is preparing for a new ground offensive in southeastern Ukraine. To support this move, Moscow is pulling from its strategic reserves to add 20,000 more soldiers to its forces currently in the country, according to the Financial Times. As stated by Vadym Skibitsky, a representative of Ukraine’s Military Intelligence or HUR, this buildup is part of a larger plan. Skibitsky noted that Russia currently has about 680,000 soldiers on Ukrainian territory. The Kremlin’s primary goal is to capture the entire Donbas region by September. The addition of fresh troops is intended to replenish existing units and strengthen the front lines for the upcoming push. This development follows months of heavy fighting across the eastern and southern fronts. Ukrainian officials continue to monitor the movement of these strategic reserves as Russia scales up its military presence for the planned operation. “Every month we destroy the same number of occupiers as they mobilize, yet the size of their force on Ukrainian territory continues to grow. We believe they are increasing their troop numbers by drawing personnel from their strategic reserves,” as stated by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Previously, Russia planned to recruit an additional 409,000 soldiers in 2026 as it increased its activity along the frontline. According to a statement from the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Russian military also intensified its recruitment efforts within the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. This campaign specifically targeted university students, where academic failure was used as a tool for mobilization. Earlier, the Center for Countering Disinformation reported that the Kremlin was considering at least three scenarios regarding the war in Ukraine. Moscow is simultaneously exploring options ranging from the continuation of hostilities to a frozen conflict and hybrid aggression against NATO countries. Meanwhile, Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Brigadier General Pavlo Palisa, noted that Russian losses in Donbas have tripled, while their advance remains minimal. According to him, despite Russia’s ambitious plans for 2026, the enemy currently lacks the actual forces to implement them. Speaking about the possibility of a new wave of mobilization in Russia, Palisa notes that throughout this entire period, the Russians have continued to draft reservists and specialized professionals into the army. "Throughout the entire period of the full-scale invasion, the Russians have been conducting a covert mobilization… That is, it has, in essence, never stopped," he explains. At the same time, he said, for mobilization in the classical sense, open and with an official announcement, many factors are necessary, the key one being an idea that unites society. "The most important thing, in my view, is an idea that must unite society and justify the need for such actions," the general says. Palisa expresses doubt that possible provocations or other events, such as terrorist attacks, could serve as such a unifying factor on the necessary scale. According to him, current propaganda narratives are also failing to produce the expected effect to justify a new wave of mobilization.
"I think right now it’s not having enough of an effect, not the one they’re expecting to justify mobilization," he adds. Separately, he notes the tightening of controls in Russia, particularly on social media, which could indicate both preparations for certain decisions and an attempt to keep the situation within the country under control. "It seems to me that this is, first and foremost, to keep the situation under general control within the country," Palisa notes. In addition, the Office of the President explained that political peace talks were currently on hold. One of the main reasons for the lull in the military-political track of the negotiations has been the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, although the humanitarian tracks, in particular, the prisoner exchange, continue to operate.
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