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Terrible storm paralyzed Russian missile ships in Black and Azov Seas: strike opportunities for Kyiv

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The storm season in the Black and Azov Seas seriously complicates Russia’s ability to launch missiles at Ukraine. This will make Ukrainians safer. This was announced by Ukrainian Navy spokesman Dmitry Pletenchuk during a telethon. According to him, storms of force three to four have been lingering at sea in recent days, and in such conditions, the use of sea-based missile carriers has effectively ceased . It’s not that the ships can’t put to sea—they are capable of doing so—but launching missiles in stormy weather is considered too risky, Pletenchuk explained. He also noted that the storm season in the Black and Azov Seas typically lasts from mid-autumn to mid-spring . During this period, Russia’s naval strike capabilities are significantly limited. The situation for the aggressor country is further complicated by the fact that the main base of Russian ships, Novorossiysk, has a less-than-ideal geographic location. Navigation there is particularly challenging in stormy weather. The Navy representative also noted that there are currently no Russian warships in Crimea , further reducing the risk of missile strikes from the sea. Reconnaissance aircraft continue to operate in the region, but their activity is significantly lower than during periods of calm weather.
Besides, Russia is covering up the situation in Novorossiysk following the Ukrainian drone strikes. The Russian Varshavyanka-class submarine that was attacked by Ukrainian Sub Sea Baby naval drones in the port of Novorossiysk on December 15 has not left its moorings. There is reason to believe the vessel is seriously damaged.
Journalists discovered that the submarine was exactly where it was on the day of the attack. Nearby, evidence of restoration work on the pier damaged by the explosion was visible. These data cast doubt on the Russian Defense Ministry’s claims that the submarine was undamaged by the strike and continues to serve. Apparently, the vessel is immobilized. The extent of the damage is currently unknown. Moscow is carefully concealing this information. According to the Security Service of Ukraine, the attack targeted a Varshavyanka-class submarine of Project 636.3. Military analyst and former Belgian naval officer Frederik Van Lokeren believes the most likely target was the Alrosa submarine, which uses a waterjet propulsion system instead of a traditional propeller. From the very beginning, the Ukrainian side insisted that the strike had grave consequences for the enemy. The SBU stated that the submarine had suffered critical damage and had been effectively decommissioned. This submarine is equipped with four Kalibr cruise missile launchers, which Russia regularly uses to strike Ukrainian territory, including civilian infrastructure. The Novorossiysk operation marked the first time in history that a Russian submarine has been successfully destroyed by Sub Sea Baby underwater drones. A submarine of this class costs an estimated $400 million, and given the sanctions, building a similar submarine would be even more expensive for Russia.
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