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Things are bad both at home and at the front: the war in Ukraine leads to Putin’s collapse

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When Russian leader Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, he didn’t expect the war to last long. However, with the front lines at a standstill, approximately 1.3 million Russian troops killed or wounded, and the economic pressure on ordinary Russians mounting, the war Putin considered his crowning achievement could turn into his downfall. Rajan Menon, a senior fellow at Columbia University’s Salzman Institute for War and Peace Studies, writes in an article for The Guardian .

For Russians, war used to be something that happened "somewhere out there, beyond the border." Now it’s happening inside Russia itself. Ukrainian drones and missiles regularly strike targets deep within the country—often more than 1,000 miles from the border.

The war also dealt a blow to the Russian economy. The army and military industry’s enormous demand for labor led to a severe labor shortage. This resulted in low unemployment (2.2% in March), but also slowed economic growth, put pressure on small businesses, and increased inflation. The Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry reports that nearly two-thirds of small businesses failed to make a profit in the first quarter of this year. Economic growth has declined from 4.9% in 2024 to 1% in 2025. 2026 is already off to a bad start: GDP contracted by 0.3% year-on-year in the first quarter. Things aren’t just looking bad in the rear; the same can be said about the front. Russian army advances this year have been minimal, partly because Ukrainian drones have transformed the battlefield.

Last year, Russia gained just 0.8% of Ukrainian territory at a cost of over 400,000 casualties, including 200,000 killed. This year, the pace of its advance has slowed significantly, and in April, it lost more territory than it gained—the first time since the defeats at Kursk in the fall of 2023.

"Ukraine, of course, also suffered significant losses. But these figures are unsurprising, given Russia’s advantage in firepower; what is noteworthy is the scale of Russian losses," the expert writes.

Putin’s security has been strengthened, and his travel within the country has been restricted. His Black Sea residence in Sochi, Bocharov Ruchey, was demolished and rebuilt with heavy security. Unlike Zelenskyy, Putin has not visited soldiers on the front lines since March of last year. The Russian government has also tightened its grip on social media, blocking Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and YouTube. In February, access to Telegram, which is used by nearly 50% of Russians for news and messaging, was restricted, and in April, a move was made toward a complete ban.

"While Putin’s fate is not necessarily sealed, his war is failing, and the signs of unease at the highest levels are too numerous to ignore," the expert notes, pointing out that the May 9 parade in Moscow, which was supposed to celebrate Russia’s military glory, may instead turn out to be a requiem for Putin’s military ambitions.

CNN notes that Russia’s time for victories is over. The Kremlin’s recent months have seen the pace of its offensive essentially stall for the first time in a long time, while Ukrainian forces have begun to gradually recapture territory .

At the same time, the FT points out that, despite the difficult situation on the front and in the economy, the Kremlin not only does not plan to curtail its aggression, but also intends to expand its aggressive demands , extending far beyond the Donbas.

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