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As concerns mount over Ukraine’s long-range strikes, Russia could end up reducing or even cancelling its annual Victory Day parades on May 9 in major cities like the capital Moscow and St. Petersburg. According to local media reports, Kremlin officials are weighing whether to cancel the traditional displays altogether due to the risk posed by Ukrainian weapons. The worry is not just about a potential strike itself, but also the impact of something like an air raid siren sounding over Red Square, which would undermine the carefully managed image of stability and control the Kremlin seeks to project on one of its most significant political occasions. Even without a direct attack, scenarios such as a missile alert, crowd panic, or an emergency evacuation of Red Square would highlight vulnerabilities at the very center of Russian power. Speculation has grown further after reports that a planned rehearsal on April 5 was suddenly stopped, with participating troops ordered back to their bases indefinitely. When questioned about possible changes, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov avoided specifics, saying only that preparations for Victory Day are ongoing. These fears are closely tied to Ukraine’s expanding long-range strike capabilities. Recent data suggests that Kyiv’s drone operations are increasing both in frequency and distance. Notably, Ukraine reportedly launched more strike drones at Russia in March than Russia directed at Ukraine – marking the first time this has happened since the full-scale war began. This shift has sparked concern even among pro-war Russian commentators, who are beginning to question the effectiveness of the country’s air defenses. Some military bloggers argue that the nature of the conflict has changed significantly, with Ukraine deploying newer drones that create serious logistical challenges. These systems are described as operating continuously, being difficult to detect, resistant to electronic countermeasures, and capable of longer-range strikes – especially when aided by airborne relay systems. There have also been claims from Russian sources that recently downed drones appeared to be more advanced models, possibly involving foreign technology, though such assertions remain unverified. Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials have suggested that Russia’s military position will continue to weaken over time. Victory Day has traditionally served as a major demonstration of Russia’s military strength, national unity, and state authority. Any disruption – even something as minor as a warning siren – could weaken that message in front of both domestic and global audiences. Since 2022, the Kremlin has increasingly used the event to draw parallels between the Soviet Union’s victory in World War II and Russia’s current war in Ukraine. However, the possibility of embarrassment or disruption may now outweigh the benefits of holding a large-scale parade. Scaling back or cancelling the event would signal that Ukraine’s growing strike reach is forcing Moscow to reconsider even its most symbolic traditions. At the same time, Ukraine continues to target infrastructure that supports Russia’s war effort. Strikes on energy facilities and ports are intended to cut into oil export revenues, which are a key source of funding – especially as global oil prices rise amid broader instability. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has also emphasized Ukraine’s push to expand its long-range capabilities, particularly in drone and missile production. He has stated that the country is rapidly increasing its defense manufacturing capacity and developing systems that, in some respects, already rival or exceed those produced elsewhere.
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