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Russian elites are gradually distancing themselves from Putin and are already considering a future without him, writes Fortune.
According to an anonymous former Russian official, a telling shift occurred in the Kremlin’s inner circle back in the spring. Officials, governors, and leading businessmen stopped referring to the government’s actions as "we." They now increasingly use phrases like "he decided" or "he did." This is seen as a sign of a hidden rift between the elites and the president.
However, there’s no talk of an immediate uprising yet. The Kremlin still controls the security forces, censorship, and the system of fear. However, the war against Ukraine, the protracted economic crisis, and growing pressure on businesses are undermining the regime’s stability.
The massive asset seizures of Russian entrepreneurs have been a particularly painful blow. According to the author’s estimates, over the past three years, the state has effectively confiscated approximately $60 billion, transferring property to entities close to the government. Even businessmen loyal to the Kremlin no longer feel safe. At the same time, the situation within the country is deteriorating. Inflation remains high, taxes and debt burdens are rising, and infrastructure is gradually deteriorating. More and more Russians are becoming frustrated with internet blockages, censorship, and ongoing restrictions.
Putin himself is increasingly isolated from society and spends most of his time in secure bunkers , focusing almost exclusively on the war. Even state-run pollsters are recording a decline in the president’s approval rating. While Putin’s approval rating exceeded 77% at the beginning of the year, it has now dropped to approximately 65%.
"The system can exist as long as Putin remains in power. But every attempt he makes to preserve it only accelerates its disintegration," writes a former Russian official. Russia’s total losses in the war against Ukraine could reach around 1.1 million people, including those killed and seriously wounded, writes 19FortyFive.
Of this number, the publication estimates that approximately 350,000 people may have died. Such figures mean that losses amount to more than half of the estimated size of the Russian active army. The protracted nature of the war, now in its fifth year, poses questions for both sides about the ultimate strain on their human and mobilization resources. Despite Russia’s numerical superiority, according to several estimates, Ukraine maintains significant forces through mobilization and reserves.
It is emphasized that the conflict is essentially a trench war, with no decisive advantage on the battlefield. Problems with morale among Russian troops are also noted, as are reports of demotivation and refusal to participate in combat operations at the beginning of the conflict.
Experts also point out that massive losses could eventually increase pressure on the Russian leadership and society, especially given the lack of clear military success. However, given the strict information control within the country, the actual public reaction is difficult to predict.
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